World Series Example of a Crypto Prop Bet 2025

Hypothetical World Series of Yankees vs Dodgers

Here is an in-depth example of a crypto prop bet involving a decentralized prediction market, using a hypothetical World Series scenario.

This illustrates the process from market creation and trading to resolution and payout.

The 2025 World Series is set between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

A decentralized prediction market platform, such as Polymarket, offers a market for a specific prop bet:

Market Question: “Will Aaron Judge (Yankees) hit a home run in Game 7 of the 2025 World Series?”

Outcomes: “Yes” or “No”
Payout: The winning contracts pay out $1.00 each at market resolution.
Resolution Source: A reliable, verifiable source like the MLB.com official website.

The market opens for trading before Game 7.

At first, the contract price is driven by early traders who have an opinion.

The “Yes” contracts might open at $0.40, implying a 40% chance of Judge hitting a home run.
The “No” contracts would then be priced at $0.60, as the sum of “Yes” and “No” prices in a binary market is always $1.00.

News breaks: A sports reporter tweets that the Dodgers are starting a left-handed pitcher against the right-handed Judge, a favorable matchup for the hitter.
Price movement: The market reacts, and the “Yes” contract price climbs to $0.48 as more traders buy in, believing the probability has increased. The “No” contracts fall to $0.52.
Sophisticated trader: An experienced trader, using statistical models and weather data, believes the wind will be blowing out at Dodger Stadium. This further increases the probability of a home run in their estimation. They buy a large quantity of “Yes” contracts at $0.48.

First inning: Judge strikes out in his first at-bat. The “Yes” price drops to $0.42, and some traders, losing confidence, sell their contracts.
Third inning: Judge hits a double. The market remains stable.
Seventh inning: Judge comes to the plate again. The “Yes” price jumps to $0.60. An anxious trader who bought at $0.48 can now sell their contract for a profit, locking in their gains before the plate appearance is even finished.

The event concludes, and the smart contract resolves the market.

Aaron Judge steps up to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and the score tied. He hits a solo home run to win the game for the Yankees.
The market’s designated oracle, which pulls data from MLB.com, receives the official box score.
UMA Optimistic Oracle: A user on the platform submits the outcome as “Yes,” staking a bond. A dispute window opens for two hours.
No dispute: Since the outcome is clearly verified by the official source, no one challenges the result.

The smart contract is triggered by the oracle’s verified “Yes” outcome.
All traders who held “Yes” contracts have their accounts automatically credited with their payouts. For example, a trader who held 100 “Yes” contracts receives $100.
The users who held “No” contracts receive no payout.
All transactions are transparently recorded on the blockchain, showing the final results and payouts without a central bookmaker managing the funds.

Decentralization: No single entity controls the odds or the payout. Traders directly affect the price, and the outcome is determined by a transparent, decentralized oracle.
Smart Contracts: The market’s rules and payout mechanism are automatically enforced by code, eliminating the need for trust in a third party.
Real-Time Trading: Prices move dynamically based on live events and market sentiment, allowing for advanced trading strategies and early cash-outs, unlike traditional betting.
Trustless Resolution: The oracle system provides a robust, verifiable way to confirm the real-world outcome, even with human intervention in the dispute process.